Digging Into the Data: Road To the Kentucky Derby

First season sire Constitution leads his generation with two runners in the Top 20.

The first Saturday in May has come and gone without a 3-year-old wearing a blanket of roses in the Churchill Downs winner circle but that didn’t keep runners from qualifying for the September 5 Kentucky Derby over the weekend.

Oaklawn Park’s Grade 1 Arkansas Derby was split on Saturday with eight different horses taking home points toward the Kentucky Derby. While there are still multiple 100 point races left to be run – and the potential addition of new points races before the September Kentucky Derby – I decided to take a look at the leaderboard and see where things sit after what is traditionally the final major Kentucky Derby prep.

By The Numbers – Right now it takes 25 points to qualify for the 2020 Kentucky Derby with four horses having 100 or more points. While comparing apples to oranges right now, in 2019 Bodexpress (Bodemeister) was able to get into the Kentucky Derby with 40 points. That’s the most points anyone has needed to get in since the points system started in 2013 with horses outside the original top 20 usually making their way into the field in the final weeks as defections come in.

Points Cut Off On Road To The Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

Year	Points	Horse	Derby Placing
2019	40	Bodexpress	13th
2018	29	Instilled Regard	4th
2017	30	Sonneteer	16th
2016	32	Mo Tom	8th
2015	22	Keen Ice	7th
2014	20	Commanding Curve	2nd
2013	10	Giant Finish	10th

Stallion Factor – Three of the 17 stallions with qualified runners have two horses currently in the top 20. Of those three, only Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) has sired a Kentucky Derby winner with Nyquist winning in 2016 as part of his sire's first crop. His current crop of 3-year-olds were conceived the year after Nyquist won Champion 2-Year-Old honors.

Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) didn’t have a horse in the 2019 Kentucky Derby but in 2018 his Audible finished third and in 2017 Practical Joke was fifth. Last year's Champion sire has seen a rise in the quality of mares he's bred every year so it's no surprise to see him have more runners this year. 

The third sire, Constitution (Tapit), is following along in a similar path to Uncle Mo. One of the leading freshmen sires last year, he has what looks to be the current Kentucky Derby favorite in Tiz The Law among his two currently qualified runners.

If things stay similar to how they are now, the Kentucky Derby may be a coming out party for the stallions who entered stud in 2016. Five different stallions (Constitution, Karakontie, Liam’s Map, Palace Malice, and Summer Front) from that generation have horses in the top 20 – the most of any stallion crop. On the other end of the spectrum, Awesome Of Course (Awesome Again) has been at stud the longest with his first season coming in 2004.

Stud Fees – All but Pioneerof The Nile (Empire Maker) are still standing at stud today with the average stud fee for those 16 stallions seeing a 16.49 percent increase from $46,813 to $54,531. As to be expected, Into Mischief saw the biggest increase in that time from $45,000 in 2016 to $175,000 this year., Other notable increases are Dialed In (Mineshaft) going from $7,500 to $20,000 and Uncle Mo from $75,000 to $125,000.

The most expensive both when they were conceived and today is Tapit (Pulpit) at $300,000 and $200,000, respectively. Awesome Of Course was the least expensive in 2016 at $5,000 but he’s now the second least expensive with Court Vision (Gulch) at $3,500 this year.

Ages – For most stallions, their best books come when they’re younger and the average age of this year’s sires backs that up.

The average age of the 17 stallions when this crop was conceived was 9.82 years old with the three youngest stallions five years of age and Speightstown (Gone West) the oldest at 18 in 2016. 

The second through fourth books are often the hardest books to attract mares for early in a stallion’s career, which is clearly shown with the numbers dropping from five first crop sires to one with second-crop 3-year-olds and none from the third crop 3-year-old sires. Fourth crop sires are represented by one stallion - which is fairly par for the course once you get up to the older stallions with no other generation of sires having more than two representatives (2005, 2011, 2012 first season sires being those with two each).

Charlatan's sire Speightstown is the oldest with a runner in the Derby Top 20.

Young mares reign on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with their average age at conception at 8.05 years. The youngest is Modernist’s (Uncle Mo) dam Symbolic Gesture, who was three and the oldest mare was only 13 when her son Storm The Court (Court Vision) was conceived. Thirteen of the 20 mares with horses in the Top 20 were under 10 years of age when producing their potential Derby runner.

Auction Prices – Last but not least is the dive into auction prices.

Only four of the top 20 runners have not went through a sales ring compared to eight Kentucky Derby runners last year but tying with the four in 2018.

Two of the 16 who did go through the ring visited it three times (as a weanling/short yearling, yearling, then 2-year-old) with the majority (seven) going through the ring twice – including two who sold in the U.S. then shipped to France to sell at Arqana as 2-year-olds.

The three who sold as weanlings/short yearlings averaged $38,333 with one other going through the ring but RNAing. They were topped by Monomoy Girl’s (Tapizar) half-brother Mr Monomoy (Palace Malice). That colt saw a 237 percent increase in his price when sold for $202,230 at Arqana in France as a 2-year-old.

Only one who sold as a weanling/short yearling was one of the 11 Derby contenders sold as a yearling with that group averaging $250,364. They were led by the only $1 million horse in this group in Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile), who was making his only journey through the sales ring. There were two yearling RNAs with blue-blooded Enforceable (Tapit) leaving the ring unsold for $775,000 at Keeneland September and King Guillermo (Uncle Mo) coming back to sell for $150,000 as a 2-year-old.

Of those 13 who went through the ring as yearlings, seven returned to the 2-year-old sales with all three who sold as weanlings/short yearlings returning as well. Showing the important part pinhooking plays in recruiting horses for the 2-year-old sales, only Ny Traffic (Cross Traffic) was going through the ring for the first time at two – and he was an RNA.

The other nine who went through the ring at two averaged $249,652 with $700,000 Nadal (Blame) topping the group after selling for $65,000 as a yearling.

Did you know Melissa offers research services to the racing industry? Visit www.PyroisMedia.com to learn more or send her an email at Melissa@PyroisMedia.com for more information.

Kentucky Derby Contender Auction Prices

Horse	2YO Price	Yrl Price	Wean/Short Yrl Price
Authentic		$350,000
Basin		$150,000
Charlatan		$700,000
Enforceable		RNA$775k
Ete Indien	$269,640	$80,000	RNA$85,000
Gouverneur Morris	$600,000	$200,000
King Guillermo	$150,000	RNA$90k
Mischevious Alex	$140,000	$75,000
Mr Monomoy	$202,230		$60,000
Nadal	$700,000	$65,000
Ny Traffic	RNA$27,000
Sole Volante	$20,000	$6,000
Storm The Court	$60,000		$5,000
Thousand Words		$1,000,000
Tiz The Law		$110,000
Wells Bayou	$105,000	$18,000	$50,000