Digging Into the Data: March 2020 Graded Stakes Update

Into Mischief had multiple graded stakes
winners in March

The beginning of March looked to usher in an exciting final round of Kentucky Derby preps and the beginning of the season for multiple divisions but after a few weeks of racing, the pause button had to be pushed with the rise of COVID-19.

Despite racing ceasing around most of North America in March, 29 graded stakes were run at seven different tracks, including four different Grade 1s. With that in mind, let’s look at the lucky winners who helped keep racing entertaining last month.

Surfaces By The Numbers: Despite many tracks cancelling some or all of their meets, 29 graded stakes races were held in March to takes the total number of graded stakes 2020 up to 90.

The majority of the graded stakes were run on dirt in March with 20 (68.97%) taking place on that surface. Eight were run on turf (27.59%) while Turfway’s Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks was the only graded stakes run on a synthetic surface.

The percentage of graded stakes run on dirt was up slightly from February where 24 of 39 took place on the surface (61.54%) and 38.46 percent run on turf (15 of 39) with none run on synthetic surfaces that month. Through the first quarter of the year, 55 graded stakes have run on dirt and 34 on turf with only the Jeff Ruby run on a synthetic surface.

Graded Stakes Levels: After a month without any Grade I events in February, March’s racing had four with three held on dirt and one on turf.

Only Gulfstream and Santa Anita have run Grade I races this year with four of the six held on the dirt and two on the turf. None of the Grade Is in 2020 have been run at less than a mile with the 9 to 9 ½ furlong range the most popular at three races followed by two one-mile Grade Is (one on dirt and one on turf) and the Grade I Pegasus being the longest at 10 furlongs.

Grade III races were the most popular in March with 13 followed closely by Grade IIs with 12. That follows the trend of the other two months with 54 Grade IIIs (60%) and 30 Grade IIs (33.33%) taking place in the first quarter.

Distances: If you have a graded stakes level sprinter, you were limited in your options on where to run them this month with only four of the 29 graded stakes (13.80%) in March run over a sprint distance. One was run at 5 ½ furlongs, one at six, and two at seven. Those who were looking for a one-mile graded stakes didn’t fare much better with just four at that distance, though stretching an extra half furlong gave you an added 10 options.

Eight and a half furlongs was the most popular graded stakes distance run in March followed by nine furlongs with six races at the distance. The furthest you could run in March was 12 furlongs on the turf (Grade II Pan American) and 10 furlongs on the dirt (Grade I Santa Anita Handicap).

Though a common thought is that America is leaning more toward sprint races than route distances, the early stakes schedule disputes that’s where the opportunities at this level lays. Eighteen graded stakes have been held at less than a mile in 2020 (20 percent) with 11 of those at the Grade III level and none at Grade I.

Those who wanted to run at a flat eight furlongs had nearly as many choices (and more opportunities at Grade I and Grade II levels) as sprinters with 16 races run at eight furlongs (17.78%) and 8 ½ furlongs adding a further 29 opportunities to that (a combined 50%).

The 8 – 8 ½ furlong range proved to be the most popular of all graded stakes in the first quarter followed by 27 graded stakes run over nine furlongs or more (30%) though all but one of the dirt graded stakes at route distances run over nine or nine and a half furlongs. As is normal for its division, turf horses had more opportunities to go longer with 9 of the 10 graded stakes going more than 9 ½ furlongs run on turf.

Santa Anita: Though Santa Anita was closed before it could run all its March stakes schedule, it led all tracks by the number of stakes it held with eight, followed by Gulfstream with seven.

Santa Anita’s program proved to be the friendliest to sprinters in March with two stakes run under eight furlongs (a 5 ½ furlong Grade III on turf and 7-furlong Grade II on dirt) and also held the longest dirt race of the month with the 10 furlong Santa Anita Handicap.

Santa Anita’s spring meet held 26 different stakes from January 1^st to March 21^st with most coming between 5 ½ furlongs (four at the distance) and 8 ½ furlongs (four at the distance).

All About March: March again proved to be the busiest foaling month for graded stakes winners with 12, the second straight month March has had the most graded stakes winners. That was followed by April with seven graded stakes winners in March and February – who led all months in January – with six graded stakes winners.

The earliest foaled graded stakes winner in March was Grade III Appleton winner Social Paranoia (Street Boss) with a January 21 birthday while Grade II San Felipe winner Authentic (Into Mischief) was the latest foaled with a May 5 birthday – three days after Combatant’s (Scat Daddy) May 2^nd foaling date.

Leading Sires: Spendthrift Farm’s Champion Sire Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) led all sires by number of graded stakes winners in March with three – taking his total to five different winners of seven graded stakes in 2020 (Authentic and Mischevious Alex being his two repeat winners).

Four different sires had two stakes winners apiece in March with two still standing in the United States. Coolmore America’s Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) is proving to have another top year with 3-year-olds after King Guillermo and Donna Veloce both won classic preps with Lane’s End’s The Factor (War Front) proving his runners are extremely versatile with Cistron and Factor This winning graded stakes over 5 ½ furlongs and nine furlongs, respectively, on turf.

Former WinStar Farm resident Daredevil (More Than Ready) is following the Murphy’s Law of stallions performing well after leaving the country after relocating to Turkey this year. The stallion had two Kentucky Oaks prep winners in Shedaresthedevil and Swiss Skydiver winning for trainer Brad Cox in March.

Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) died in late 2015 but he is still proving to be a potent source of racing success with two graded stakes winners in March. His son Combatant almost certainly earned a place at stud with a Grade I win at Santa Anita while Mean Mary continued to show she’s a real threat in the Female Turf division this year.

Scat Daddy

Repeat Winners: Twelve different horses have won two graded stakes this year with nine of them winning one of those races in March.

Both Cheermeister (Bodemeister) and Tonalist’s Shape (Tonalist) won both their stakes in the same month with their victories coming on the exact same days – February 1 and February 29.

Stud Fees: The 19 sires with March graded stakes winners standing for an advertised fee in 2020 is $44,849, a 100.77 percent increase from their average of $22,339 the year each of their oldest graded stakes winner was conceived.

Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Curlin (Smart Strike) and Spendthrift’s Into Mischief saw the biggest fee increases. Curlin stood for $35,000 when his Grade III Hurricane Bertie winner Sally’s Curlin was conceived in 2015 and is standing for an advertised fee of $175,000 this year. Into Mischief stood for $20,000 when Beema’s Boy’s dam visited the shed in 2014 and is now at $175,000.

The 39 stallions standing for an advertised fee in 2020 who have had graded stakes winners in the first three months of this year are standing for an average of $45,877 in 2020, up 48.79 percent from the $30,834 they stood for the year their oldest graded stakes winner was conceived.

Six of the stallions who stood in the U.S. when their stakes winner was conceived have been exported (two to Japan, two to South Korea, two to Turkey), one has been pensioned, and seven have died.  

Six graded stakes winners were conceived out of North America with four of those stallions having advertised stud fees both the year their winner was conceived and today (their fees were calculated into U.S. dollars by using Google’s exchange rate). The biggest increase of those stallions was Coolmore Stud’s No Nay Never (Scat Daddy) seeing a 900 percent increase rising from €17,500 in 2016 to €175,000 in 2020.

Auctions: Twenty-four of March’s graded stakes winners sold at public auction at least once with 13 selling twice and two selling three times (one going through a horses in training sale and one a 2-year-old sale.

The most expensive of the 24 horses was the $800,000 2-year-old Donna Veloce (Uncle Mo), who sold for $450,000 at Keeneland September. The least expensive was the $2,700 Keeneland September yearling Factor This (The Factor), who then sold as a 2-year-old for $11,000.

Selling for a combined total of $4,436,551 at their highest price, the 24 horses sold averaged $184,856.30 with a median of $107,500.

Did you know Melissa offers research services to the racing industry? Visit www.PyroisMedia.com to learn more or send her an email at Melissa@PyroisMedia.com for more information.

March 2020 Graded Stakes Winners

Date	Race	Grade	Horse	Sire	Dam
3/7	Frank E. Kilroe	1	River Boyne	Dandy Man	Clytha
3/7	Honeybee	3	Shedaresthedevil	Daredevil	Starship Warpspeed
3/7	Hillsborough	2	Starship Jubilee	Indy Wind	Perfectly Wild
3/7	Gotham	3	Mischevious Alex	Into Mischief	White Pants Night
3/7	San Felipe	2	Authentic	Into Mischief	Flawless
3/7	Florida Oaks	3	Ourburst	Outstrip	Daidoo
3/7	Santa Anita Handicap	1	Combatant	Scat Daddy	Border Dispute
3/7	San Carlos	2	Flagstaff	Speightstown	Indyan Giving
3/7	Tom Fool	3	Mind Control	Stay Thirsty	Feel That Fire
3/7	Challenger	3	Trophy Chaser	Twirling Candy	European Union
3/7	Tampa Bay Derby	2	King Guillermo	Uncle Mo	Slow Sand
3/8	Santa Ysabel	3	Donna Veloce	Uncle Mo	Coin Broker
3/14	Azeri	2	Serengetti Empress	Alternation	Havisham
3/14	Rebel	2	Nadal	Blame	Ascending Angel
3/14	Hurricane Bertie	3	Sally's Curlin	Curlin	Cabo Queen
3/14	Beholder Mile	1	Ce Ce	Elusive Quality	Miss Houdini
3/14	Jeff Ruby	3	Field Pass	Lemon Drop Kid	Only Me
3/21	New Orleans Classic	2	By My Standards	Goldencents	A Jealous Woman
3/21	Louisiana Derby	2	Wells Bayou	Lookin At Lucky	Whispering Angel
3/21	San Luis Rey	3	Ward 'n Jerry	Lucky Pulpit	Tamarack Bay
3/21	FG Oaks	2	Bonny South	Munnings	Touch The Star
3/21	San Simeon	3	Cistron	The Factor	Major Allie
3/21	Muniz Memorial Classic	2	Factor This	The Factor	Capricious Miss
3/28	Florida Derby	1	Tiz The Law	Constitution	Tizfit
3/28	Hal's Hope	3	Identifier	Creative Cause	Can't Catch Kate
3/28	GP Oaks	2	Swiss Skydiver	Daredevil	Expo Gold
3/28	Pan American	2	Bemma's Boy	Into Mischief	Arcing
3/28	Orchid	3	Mean Mary	Scat Daddy	Karlovy Vary
3/28	Appleton	3	Social Paranoia	Street Boss	Shutterbug

February 2020 Graded Stakes Update

January 2020 Graded Stakes Update